Information regarding the routes of export cargo from Belarus following the loss of legitimate authority and the imposition of economic sanctions, as well as certain estimates of the colossal national losses resulting from these events, can be found in publications on our website. We will not repeat ourselves; links are provided below.
Today, we present some data on the volumes of Belarusian export cargo through the ports of neighboring countries, comparing periods before and after sanctions. This data is not statistical and may differ slightly from reality, but for analysis and understanding the overall picture, this is not significant (such ‘operational' data is used by both Belarusian Railway and authorities at all levels for assessment and decision-making, while statistics only refine them much later). It is much more interesting and informative to observe the dynamics and redistribution of cargo flows – this reflects the situation and provides insight into how logistics are changing under sanction restrictions.
1 – Volume of cargo transportation to ports of the Russian Federation (comparison for five months of 2022 and 2023); 2 – Volume of cargo transportation to ports of neighboring countries (comparison of 2019 and 2020); 3 – Volume of cargo transportation to ports of neighboring countries (comparison for two months of 2020 and 2021):
The charts below clearly show that in 2019 and 2020, the export of cargo from Belarus, passing through seaports, was carried out, respectively, via:
- Lithuania – 13,293 thousand tonnes (66% share) and 13,866 thousand tonnes (74%);
- Latvia – 4,256 thousand tonnes (21%) and 3,391 thousand tonnes (18%);
- Estonia – 1,539 thousand tonnes (7%) and 604 thousand tonnes (3%);
- Ukraine – 936 thousand tonnes (5%) and 933 thousand tonnes (5%);
- Russia – 232 thousand tonnes (1%) and 57 thousand tonnes (less than 1%).
1 – Volumes of cargo transportation through Russian ports, excluding the northwestern region, for five months of 2022 and 2023, tonnes; 2 – Volumes of cargo transportation through ports of the northwestern region of Russia for five months of 2022 and 2023, tonnes.
1 – Volumes of cargo transportation through ports of neighboring countries in 2020, tonnes; 2 – Volumes of cargo transportation through ports of neighboring countries in 2019, tonnes.
A similar distribution of exports had been established in previous years and even decades, as the most competitive transportation routes, yielding maximum profit, were utilized. Moreover, over these years, the infrastructure of the ports used was adapted to the needs of Belarusian exports, including through investments from Belarusian exporters who developed it in partnership with port terminals. Therefore, the costs of cargo transshipment in these ports also became increasingly attractive.
Additionally, the railway infrastructure was purposefully developed by the railways of Belarus and the respective neighboring countries, and a mutually beneficial tariff policy was established, allowing some to sell effectively and others to transport efficiently.
The usurpation of power in Belarus, as well as assistance to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, deprived the national economy of all these opportunities and achievements. In 2022 and 2023, the transportation of export cargo from Belarus fundamentally changed routes.
Over five months of 2022 and 2023, 1,137 and 4,845 thousand tonnes of cargo, respectively, passed through Russian ports. While 19-20 million tonnes of cargo were transported annually through the ports of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine in 2019-2020, exports through Russian ports accounted for approximately 25% for five months of 2023 of the indicated annual volumes.
If we evaluate by the most common types of cargo – oil and petroleum products and various fertilizers, the reorientation of these cargoes to Russian ports over five months of 2023 compared to 2020 looks as follows: 2,041 thousand tonnes (45% of 4,517 thousand tonnes) and 2,686 thousand tonnes (23% of 11,800 thousand tonnes). It is noticeable that the sale and export of various fertilizers are particularly active and accelerating. This is understandable – these are ‘natural resources,' and their price can be reduced to cover losses from routes through Russia that are many times longer, at the expense of Belarusian earnings. With oil and petroleum products, it is more complicated, as no one sells it to Belarus for processing at reduced prices, which means the possibilities for maneuvering the price of the final product are limited.
Related materials:
- Belarusian Railway and Russian Railways are doing everything to circumvent sanctions
- “Fair Family” Russian-Belarusian business on the resources of Belarusian exporters and railway workers
- Realities of routes for exporting main Belarusian products
- Global bypass routes for Belarus and Russia supplies
- Azerbaijan: Sanctions force Belarusian Railway to ‘break through' new routes and markets
